Few people would wish to trade places with Giuseppe Conte, Italy's prime minister.As covid-19 spread he put the entire country into lockdown for the first time since the second world war.Now he must try to contain the economic effects. But he is finding that tackling them also depends on lenders and Europe's institutions.The immediate prognosis is a severe contraction. Economists at JPMorgan Chase, a bank,expect GDP to fall at an annualised rate of 7.5% in the first quarter of the year.The hope at least is that recovery is rapid.To that end, Mr Conte said on March 11th that he would set aside 25bn euro ($28bn, or 1.4% of GDP)in order to cushion the epidemic's economic effects.The precise measures were yet to be agreed as The Economist went to press,but were expected to include compensation for companies that lose revenues and workers who are laid off.Ministers have also promised to help banks suspend repayments on mortgages and small-business loans for a year.
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没什么人愿意和意大利总理朱塞佩·孔特交换位置。随着covid-19的传播，整个国家自二战以来第一次进入了禁闭状态。现在他必须设法控制经济影响。但他发现，解决这些问题也依赖于放贷机构和欧洲机构。目前的形势预报是严重收缩。摩根大通银行的经济学家预测按年率计算，今年第一季度的GDP将下降7.5%。至少希望经济能够得到迅速的复苏为此，孔特在3月11日表示，他将拨出250亿欧元（280亿美元，占GDP1.4 %）以缓冲流行病的经济影响。在刊付印之际，具体的措施尚未达成一致，但预计将包括对失去营业收入的公司和下岗工人的补偿。部长们还承诺帮助银行在一年内暂停偿还抵押贷款和小企业贷款。

As people fall ill and quarantines are imposed, businesses and households face abrupt disruptions to their income.That means quick fixes are in high demand. Unlike public-spending measures,bank forbearance does not need legislation, and so can take immediate effect.But Italy's lenders, which already have higher non-performing loan ratios than the euro-area average,warn that they cannot cope with the loss in interest income unless the government guarantees unpaid loans,so that they do not have to hold more provisions.

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生病的人被强制隔离，企业和家庭的收入会突然中断。这意味着对快速解决问题方法的需求很高。与公共支出措施不同，银行宽限不需要立法，因此可以立即生效。但意大利的放贷机构（这些机构的不良贷款率已经高于欧元区平均水平）警告称，除非政府为未偿还贷款提供担保，否则他们无法应对利息收入的损失，这样他们就不必持有更多准备金。

In any case, leniency from lenders will help some of those most disrupted by the epidemic, but not all.Small firms, which are more likely to rely on bank finance, will benefit. But only 15% of Italian households have mortgages.The neediest, says Tito Boeri, a former head of the social-security administration, cannot take out loans in the first place.More helpful would be to extend unemployment benefit to cover the self-employed, who make up a fifth of the workforce,and temporary workers whose contracts are due to expire. For as long as the outbreak lasts,benefits will need to be unconditional and generous, notes Francesco Giavazzi of Bocconi University.If they are too stingy, people will start hoarding cash, fearing that the government could withdraw its support.

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无论如何，放贷机构的宽容会帮助一些受疫情影响最严重的人，但不是所有人。更倾向于依靠银行融资的小企业将从中受益。但是只有15%的意大利家庭有房屋贷款。社会保障署前署长表示，最需要帮助的人一开始就无法获得贷款。更帮助的做法是将失业救济金扩大到占劳动力五分之一的个体经营者和合同即将到期的临时工。只要疫情持续，福利就必须是无条件且慷慨的，博科尼大学的弗朗切斯科·贾瓦齐说到。如果过于吝啬，人们就会开始囤积现金，担心政府可能会撤回对他们的支持。

注释

1.lockdown 禁闭

Prisoners have been placed on lockdown to preventfurther violence at the jail.

已对囚犯实行活动限制，以免狱中再出现暴力行为。

2.contain控制

Government forces have failed to contain therebellion.

政府军未能遏止叛乱。

3.set aside 留出

Some doctors advise setting aside a certain hour each day for worry

一些医生建议每天留出一点时间来解决烦心事。

4.lay off 解雇

100,000 federal workers will be laid off to reduce the deficit...

10万联邦公务人员将被辞退以减少赤字。